Weekly Market Commentary
Stay informed with our Weekly Market Commentary, your source for timely insights on market trends, economic developments, and key events shaping the financial landscape.
Each week, we break down what happened, why it matters, and what it could mean for investors moving forward.
The Cash Flow Case for Value
August 31, 2026 | LPL Research
LPL Research explores why value stocks are outperforming, how free cash flow drives returns, and the impact of AI spending on markets.
Stock Market Tug of War: Earnings vs. Rates
August 24, 2026 | LPL Research
LPL Research explores how strong earnings growth, AI-driven profits, and rising estimates are supporting stocks despite pressure from higher interest rates.
Shifting Leadership in Global Growth
August 17, 2026 | LPL Research
LPL Research explores shifting global growth leadership, cooling emerging markets, Fed policy expectations, and foreign demand for U.S. Treasuries.
Municipal Bond Outlook: Why Carry Is the Strategy
August 10, 2026 | LPL Research
LPL Research outlines how a Fed on hold, strong reinvestment demand, and elevated yields create compelling opportunities in municipal bonds.
Constructive on Stocks in the Second Half as AI Debate Continues
August 3, 2026 | LPL Research
LPL Research highlights strong corporate earnings, AI-driven growth, and a favorable equity outlook while monitoring inflation, oil prices, and risks.
Can Hyperscalers Earn Their AI Ambitions?
July 27, 2026 | LPL Research
LPL Research explores whether hyperscalers can generate attractive returns on massive AI investments through a framework focused on ROIC, growth, and capex.
China Holds Keys to Post-War Oil Prices
July 20, 2026 | LPL Research
LPL Research analyzes China’s declining crude imports, inflation risks, and the resilient U.S. economy driving above-trend growth.
Keep Calm and Clip Coupons
July 13, 2026 | LPL Research
LPL Research examines how sticky inflation, Fed leadership changes, and AI-driven borrowing are shaping the fixed income outlook for 2026.
Has Stock Market Exuberance Become Irrational?
June 29, 2026 | LPL Research
LPL Research examines current market and investor sentiment in an effort to gauge current levels of exuberance.
Kevin Warsh Could Shake Up the Fed
June 22, 2026 | LPL Research
LPL Research examines Warsh’s evolving Fed approach, infrastructure-led growth, and the impact of China demand on oil prices.
Is Bad News Already Priced into the Bond Market?
June 8, 2026 | LPL Research
LPL Research analyzes bond markets as yields rise, exploring Fed policy expectations, inflation trends, and whether bad news is already priced into Treasuries.
Add Context, and Stock Market Valuations are Fair
June 1, 2026 | LPL Research
LPL Research analyzes stock valuations, finding them fair given growth, rates, inflation, and AI-driven earnings outlook despite risks.
Seeds of Opportunity: The Case for Agriculture Investments
May 26, 2026 | LPL Research
LPL Research explores opportunities in agriculture as supply risks and fertilizer constraints reshape commodity markets and support potential gains.
A New Fed Regime: Warsh, Policy Direction, and Treasury Market Consequences
May 11, 2026 | LPL Research
LPL Research explores how a potential Warsh-led Fed could reshape policy, Treasury markets, and volatility amid rising deficits and shifting demand.
AI Wave Continues to Power Technology Earnings Boom
May 4, 2026 | LPL Research
LPL Research examines overlooked tech growth, assessing strong earnings, AI skepticism, and valuation opportunities for investors.
American Industrial Renaissance: Fact or Fiction?
April 27, 2026 | LPL Research
LPL Research assesses the case for an American Industrial Renaissance, focusing on manufacturing investment, supply‑chain resilience, and energy costs.
Rethinking Fixed Income Allocation in a Multi‑Polar World
April 20, 2026 | LPL Research
LPL Research examines the fixed income space as global bonds broaden yields and reduce U.S. concentration, offering diversified income and resilience via non‑U.S. developed and emerging markets.
The Economy Takes Multiple Shocks in Stride
April 13, 2026 | LPL Research
LPL Research reviews inflation, growth, and global financial conditions, showing why the economy continues to withstand multiple shocks.
Lessons From Past Conflicts for Today’s Stock Market
April 6, 2026 | LPL Research
LPL Research looks to the past for lessons on geopolitical uncertainty and its potential impact on equities.
Earnings Likely to Grow Double-Digits Again; Will Markets Care?
March 30, 2026 | LPL Research
LPL Research explains why solid earnings, AI investment, and economic resilience underpin stocks, even as oil prices and volatility pressure markets.
Private Credit Under Pressure: Liquidity Mismatches in an AI-Disrupted Cycle
March 23, 2026 | LPL Research
LPL Research examines recent private credit activity in the face of growing sophistication from AI.
Why Oil Prices Matter Less — But Still Move Headline Inflation
March 16, 2026 | LPL Research
LPL Research explains how America’s declining reliance on oil and rising geopolitical risks shape inflation, growth expectations, and volatility in 2026.
Markets Tested as Iran Conflict Continues
March 9, 2026 | LPL Research
LPL Research reviews how the Iran conflict is affecting markets, highlighting energy risks, market resilience, and what investors should watch in the weeks ahead.
How LPL Research Thinks About Dividends
March 2, 2026 | LPL Research
Looking beyond recent dividend strategies' performance, LPL Research asks and answers the question, “How should I think about dividend stocks or building an equity income portfolio?”
LPL Research’s 2026 Strategic Asset Allocation
February 23, 2026 | LPL Research
Explore LPL Research’s 2026 SAA update, featuring equity shifts, bond strategy, and purposeful diversification to support steady long‑term portfolio outcomes.
From Bubble Fears to Disruption Risk: The New AI Market Narrative
February 17, 2026 | LPL Research
LPL Research analyzes recent market activity, AI anxieties, and possible directions the new technology could be heading in.
Five Reasons the Run in Emerging Markets Could Continue
February 9, 2026 | LPL Research
After a stellar 2025 in which emerging market (EM) equities returned 34%, 2026 is off to a good start with the MSCI EM Index up 7% year to date. Last year’s near doubling of the S&P 500 return was driven mostly by a weakening U.S. dollar, which propped up EM returns, but attractive valuations and artificial intelligence (AI) investment played a role. This week we highlight five reasons we’ve warmed up to EM.
Dueling Mandates: The Fed’s Policy Caution and Treasury’s Growing Borrowing Needs
February 2, 2026 | LPL Research
The Federal Reserve (Fed) enters 2026 navigating potentially constrained policy conditions as resilient growth and above‑trend inflation intersect with an increasingly unsustainable fiscal trajectory. Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that federal debt growth requires eventual corrective action, even if near‑term market risks remain limited. Rising primary deficits at near full employment further limit long‑run policy flexibility, while expanding Treasury financing needs — and a growing reliance on short‑duration bills — heighten rollover risk and amplify sensitivity to the Fed’s policy rate.
The Productivity Advantage: Powering Economic Growth in 2026
January 26, 2026 | LPL Research
Productivity growth is the key mechanism that allows the U.S. economy to expand above its long‑run trend without reigniting inflation. Recent data show U.S. nonfarm business productivity rising 4.9% in Q3 2025, a surge strong enough to counter inflationary pressures even amid solid economic growth. Beyond containing inflation, faster productivity growth also helps offset structural headwinds from slowing population growth, a shrinking labor force, and an expanding retiree cohort. Technological innovation is poised to provide the backbone for this productivity boost. The U.S. remains among the world’s productivity leaders — it ranks near the top of major advanced economies, placing it ahead of Germany, France, the U.K., Japan, and Canada.
Unearthing the Metals Melt-Up
January 20, 2026 | LPL Research
In this week’s Weekly Market Commentary, we explore the drivers behind the strength in metals, the associated risks, and the outlook for the durability of the rally.
Earnings Preview: Double-Digit Streak Likely to Continue
January 12, 2026 | LPL Research
Fourth quarter earnings season unofficially kicks off this week with a dozen banks and asset managers in the S&P 500 slated to report. Results will come from some big names, including JPMorgan Chase (JPM) on Tuesday; Bank of America (BAC), Wells Fargo (WFC) and Citigroup (C) on Wednesday; and Blackrock (BLK), Goldman Sachs (GS), and Morgan Stanley (MS) on Thursday. After these and the rest of the results are in, we believe there could be a continuation of an impressive streak of quarters with double-digit earnings growth, expanding profit margins despite tariffs, and another quarter of strong earnings growth from the technology sector and the AI buildout.
Evaluating Our 2025 Forecasts: Equity, Fixed Income, and the U.S. Economy
January 5, 2026 | LPL Research
With 2025 behind us, it’s a good time to celebrate some of our better forecasts from last year while also reviewing some misses we can learn from. In our view, we got more right than wrong last year, but there were some misses among our tactical asset allocation recommendations. For the second straight year, as the bull market marched on, the most impactful decision we made was probably to recommend investors stay fully invested in equities at benchmark levels throughout the entire year despite elevated valuations.