Weekly Market Commentary
Stay informed with our Weekly Market Commentary, your source for timely insights on market trends, economic developments, and key events shaping the financial landscape.
Each week, we break down what happened, why it matters, and what it could mean for investors moving forward.
Energy Shock Expected to Hit Prices Harder Than the Economy
May 18, 2026 | LPL Research
LPL Research examines rising inflation risks amid geopolitical tensions, while resilient growth and strong investment support continued expansion.
A New Fed Regime: Warsh, Policy Direction, and Treasury Market Consequences
May 11, 2026 | LPL Research
LPL Research explores how a potential Warsh-led Fed could reshape policy, Treasury markets, and volatility amid rising deficits and shifting demand.
AI Wave Continues to Power Technology Earnings Boom
May 4, 2026 | LPL Research
LPL Research examines overlooked tech growth, assessing strong earnings, AI skepticism, and valuation opportunities for investors.
American Industrial Renaissance: Fact or Fiction?
April 27, 2026 | LPL Research
LPL Research assesses the case for an American Industrial Renaissance, focusing on manufacturing investment, supply‑chain resilience, and energy costs.
Rethinking Fixed Income Allocation in a Multi‑Polar World
April 20, 2026 | LPL Research
LPL Research examines the fixed income space as global bonds broaden yields and reduce U.S. concentration, offering diversified income and resilience via non‑U.S. developed and emerging markets.
The Economy Takes Multiple Shocks in Stride
April 13, 2026 | LPL Research
LPL Research reviews inflation, growth, and global financial conditions, showing why the economy continues to withstand multiple shocks.
Lessons From Past Conflicts for Today’s Stock Market
April 6, 2026 | LPL Research
LPL Research looks to the past for lessons on geopolitical uncertainty and its potential impact on equities.
Earnings Likely to Grow Double-Digits Again; Will Markets Care?
March 30, 2026 | LPL Research
LPL Research explains why solid earnings, AI investment, and economic resilience underpin stocks, even as oil prices and volatility pressure markets.
Private Credit Under Pressure: Liquidity Mismatches in an AI-Disrupted Cycle
March 23, 2026 | LPL Research
LPL Research examines recent private credit activity in the face of growing sophistication from AI.
Why Oil Prices Matter Less — But Still Move Headline Inflation
March 16, 2026 | LPL Research
LPL Research explains how America’s declining reliance on oil and rising geopolitical risks shape inflation, growth expectations, and volatility in 2026.
Markets Tested as Iran Conflict Continues
March 9, 2026 | LPL Research
LPL Research reviews how the Iran conflict is affecting markets, highlighting energy risks, market resilience, and what investors should watch in the weeks ahead.
How LPL Research Thinks About Dividends
March 2, 2026 | LPL Research
Looking beyond recent dividend strategies' performance, LPL Research asks and answers the question, “How should I think about dividend stocks or building an equity income portfolio?”
LPL Research’s 2026 Strategic Asset Allocation
February 23, 2026 | LPL Research
Explore LPL Research’s 2026 SAA update, featuring equity shifts, bond strategy, and purposeful diversification to support steady long‑term portfolio outcomes.
From Bubble Fears to Disruption Risk: The New AI Market Narrative
February 17, 2026 | LPL Research
LPL Research analyzes recent market activity, AI anxieties, and possible directions the new technology could be heading in.
Five Reasons the Run in Emerging Markets Could Continue
February 9, 2026 | LPL Research
After a stellar 2025 in which emerging market (EM) equities returned 34%, 2026 is off to a good start with the MSCI EM Index up 7% year to date. Last year’s near doubling of the S&P 500 return was driven mostly by a weakening U.S. dollar, which propped up EM returns, but attractive valuations and artificial intelligence (AI) investment played a role. This week we highlight five reasons we’ve warmed up to EM.
Dueling Mandates: The Fed’s Policy Caution and Treasury’s Growing Borrowing Needs
February 2, 2026 | LPL Research
The Federal Reserve (Fed) enters 2026 navigating potentially constrained policy conditions as resilient growth and above‑trend inflation intersect with an increasingly unsustainable fiscal trajectory. Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that federal debt growth requires eventual corrective action, even if near‑term market risks remain limited. Rising primary deficits at near full employment further limit long‑run policy flexibility, while expanding Treasury financing needs — and a growing reliance on short‑duration bills — heighten rollover risk and amplify sensitivity to the Fed’s policy rate.
The Productivity Advantage: Powering Economic Growth in 2026
January 26, 2026 | LPL Research
Productivity growth is the key mechanism that allows the U.S. economy to expand above its long‑run trend without reigniting inflation. Recent data show U.S. nonfarm business productivity rising 4.9% in Q3 2025, a surge strong enough to counter inflationary pressures even amid solid economic growth. Beyond containing inflation, faster productivity growth also helps offset structural headwinds from slowing population growth, a shrinking labor force, and an expanding retiree cohort. Technological innovation is poised to provide the backbone for this productivity boost. The U.S. remains among the world’s productivity leaders — it ranks near the top of major advanced economies, placing it ahead of Germany, France, the U.K., Japan, and Canada.
Unearthing the Metals Melt-Up
January 20, 2026 | LPL Research
In this week’s Weekly Market Commentary, we explore the drivers behind the strength in metals, the associated risks, and the outlook for the durability of the rally.
Earnings Preview: Double-Digit Streak Likely to Continue
January 12, 2026 | LPL Research
Fourth quarter earnings season unofficially kicks off this week with a dozen banks and asset managers in the S&P 500 slated to report. Results will come from some big names, including JPMorgan Chase (JPM) on Tuesday; Bank of America (BAC), Wells Fargo (WFC) and Citigroup (C) on Wednesday; and Blackrock (BLK), Goldman Sachs (GS), and Morgan Stanley (MS) on Thursday. After these and the rest of the results are in, we believe there could be a continuation of an impressive streak of quarters with double-digit earnings growth, expanding profit margins despite tariffs, and another quarter of strong earnings growth from the technology sector and the AI buildout.
Evaluating Our 2025 Forecasts: Equity, Fixed Income, and the U.S. Economy
January 5, 2026 | LPL Research
With 2025 behind us, it’s a good time to celebrate some of our better forecasts from last year while also reviewing some misses we can learn from. In our view, we got more right than wrong last year, but there were some misses among our tactical asset allocation recommendations. For the second straight year, as the bull market marched on, the most impactful decision we made was probably to recommend investors stay fully invested in equities at benchmark levels throughout the entire year despite elevated valuations.
Navigating Neutral: Fed Policy Key for Fixed Income Markets in 2026
December 22, 2025 | LPL Research
2025 was a good year for most fixed income markets but we’re approaching 2026 with caution. All-in yields are still attractive for most markets, but spreads (the additional compensation for owning riskier debt) are low, suggesting investors aren’t getting paid to take on a lot of credit risk right now. Federal Reserve (Fed) policy will be key, though, in determining returns in 2026, but with a new Chair expected at the helm by May, rate volatility could remain elevated.
Policy Tailwinds and Artificial Intelligence to Power Stocks in 2026
December 15, 2025 | LPL Research
The bull market appears poised to extend its run in 2026, fueled by ongoing enthusiasm around AI and further easing of monetary policy from the Fed. However, with valuations running high and midterm election years often bringing more volatility, gains may be more tempered in 2026. LPL Research suggests investors maintain current allocations near long-term targets and stay patient for pullbacks to selectively increase equity exposures. Here we feature LPL Research’s stock market for 2026, taken from Outlook 2026: The Policy Engine.
More Keys for Markets in 2026: LPL Market Outlook Sneak Peek
December 1, 2025 | LPL Research
In our Weekly Market Commentary on November 17, we previewed our Outlook 2026 publication, due out on December 9. We highlighted several keys for markets next year, covering the U.S. economy, stocks, and bonds. This week, we broaden our preview and tease some other factors investors will want to consider when thinking about investing in 2026.
Corporate America Cleared a High Bar This Earnings Season
November 24, 2025 | LPL Research
Third quarter earnings season winds down over the next couple of weeks and has once again met Wall Street’s high expectations. After tariff-muddled first quarter results, companies did a good job adjusting to tariffs in the second quarter and continued to do so last quarter. A strong beat rate and another quarter of double-digit earnings growth proved corporate America’s resilience, bolstered by mega cap technology’s artificial intelligence (AI) investment. Here we recap third quarter earnings season, when more stayed the same than changed. Hat tip to profit margins.
Stocks Are Following the Market’s Playbook
September 8, 2025 | LPL Research
Some of you reading this title might think this commentary is about September seasonality. Sure, seasonality is part of our playbook and is getting a lot of attention right now. We would not be surprised if volatility were to pick up some this month — even though seasonality isn’t as much of a concern during positively trending markets.
Calm Before the Storm: Can This Rally Continue in September?
September 2, 2025 | LPL Research
The winning streak for stocks continued in August, as the S&P 500 posted its fourth consecutive month of gains. It was an informative month for investors, as we learned that the labor market may not be as solid as expected, tariffs have had a minimal impact on inflation and margins thus far, corporate America and the consumer remain resilient...
Grand Ideas at the Grand Tetons
August 25, 2025 | LPL Research
As central bankers, economists, and policymakers gathered last weekend in Wyoming’s Grand Teton National Park for the 2025 Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, the Federal Reserve (Fed) found itself at a critical juncture marked by political pressures, personnel changes, and internal divisions over monetary policy direction.
Earnings Season Delivered
August 18, 2025 | LPL Research
Second quarter earnings season, which winds down this week and next, has met some of the highest expectations. Strong beat rates, big upside earnings surprises, and increases in estimates during the past four weeks were consistent themes that gave investors very little to complain about.
Stocks Sailing Smoothly Through Policy Crosscurrents So Far
August 11, 2025 | LPL Research
We’re all ready to put the tariff talk to bed. But don’t worry. While this commentary provides an update on the tariff situation, there’s more happening on the policy front than just tariffs. Whatever policy we highlight, it’s clear that the stock market is sailing through those choppy, even unprecedented waters.